Rains delay

Sorry for having stopped posting for a while. As you may have already seen on the news, rains almost drowned us here. A great pity, few days ago this could have been our best season by far. This week, after a sequence of 2 to 4 sunny(or not so rainy) days, things are a little calmer and most of the damaged fields have been harvested.

I’ve been every day in the fields, raining or not, racing against the time, especially sampling soybeans still suitable for seeds. Not an easy task these days.

In 10-15 days we are done and I will be able to post again.
There are plenty of things to be said and shown.

02/25/2014, Campos de Julio – Mato Grosso.

 

If there is a field of 80 bu/ac, this is it.

Commercial field of TMG4182 soybeans in Déciolandia, Mato Grosso.

61,6 bu/ac – Call Me a Liar

TMG 4182 variety (conventional, resistant to multiple breeds of cyst nematodes) -> 2.517 acres harvested, 61,64 bu/ac. Some fields as high as 66 bu/ac where the record in recent years had been 51 bu/ac.

5 Grains Pod and Record Yields

An agronomist that works nearby just spotted this wonder yesterday: a FIVE grains pod!

Credits to Monise Tschope (Instagram: @motschope), who works for Amaggi Group, in Sapezal, Mato Grosso.

It’s something I had never seen and I am now completely envy of her. It’s also an expression of how weather conditions have been perfect along this season as soybean plants “decide” which pods to retain and seeds to fill. Yields have been record and this will be by far the best soybeans season ever in the west of Mato Grosso. Actually, reports are that this is alto true for the rest of Mato Grosso.

Great news!

Helicoverpa Caterpillar – An Ongoing Fight

Three months ago, just before planting, we were scared on how the now famous Helicoverpa caterpillar would behave in our crops…

This motherf****r goes right in the pods

…scared because we knew that the pesticides currently allowed in Brazil do not control helicoverpa effectively. According to research and previous farm experiences in Bahia, they are only efficient until helicoverpa reaches about 0,5 inch. After that, they look more like vitamins to the caterpillars. Half an inch is a risky threshold and there wasn’t a safeguard, a last minute weapon, so we urged to the approval of emamectin benzoate, an effective inseticide available in more than 77 countries, including Australia, Argentina, USA, and Europe, but still under the stuck-in-the-mud brazilian government studies, who apparently judges itself much better than its international counterparts.

Meanwhile, and knowing that this approval could take months to come(or never come), Mato Grosso’s institutions and companies acted quickly to intruct farmers on how to monitore, recognize, and control this plague.  Constant monitoring has been the order since then and fortunately it has worked. We are now in the middle of 2013/14 soybeans season in Brazil. Early fields will start to be harvested next week and by now everything is under control in most places. Costs are higher but yields are not being affected.

The Reason Behind All These Chinese Cancellations

…fair enough.

Soybeans last breath

Today USDA report is expected to decrease US ending stocks to a even more critical level. Part of it is already on the price, part is not, and recent price action, especially yesterday’s, seems to reinforce that there is still some upside ahead. If this prospect if confirmed, a good entry point may become apparent so it is worth watching today market reaction to the report.

…this adds to technicals, seasonals and fundamental drivers displayed on the chart below (click on it for further info) and commented here almost a month ago.

…AND

Another pro aspect are seasonal averages that show us a traditional rally on Decembers. Take a look.

Important also to note that a rally now has a good chance to be a last and quick breath unless something bad happens to South America 13/14 beans crop.
Play accordingly.

Meal/Corn ratio near a record high

Peter Brandt has called my attention to this.
It might become a good trade opportunity in corn.

I still think we need more bullish signals to go long, but who am I to argue.
See for yourself…

“…We are at or near the top.

1. Meal supply is very tight. Meal spreads have been inverted for some time, with the nearby expiring December contract presently trading at a $25 premium to the March contract. As a general rule, it is never wise to be short a market that is inverted.

2. The nearby continuation chart of Corn displays a small H&S bottom (see below) — the individual contract charts do now show this pattern. A continuation chart tends to better reflect the cash market.”

Respectfully copied from Peter Brandt:
http://peterlbrandt.com/believe-corn-prices-near-bottom/
https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt
http://www.amazon.com/Diary-Professional-Commodity-Trader-Lessons/
and DTN guys have also called and posted a nice chart of it, here.
http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/

What say ya ?

Warren Buttet’s advice on farmland

Something got my attention while reading about Howard Buffet.
On his twitter profile (@40chances) you will find a quick Warren Buffet’s advice to his son:
“Sell the farm!”

Soybean’s harvest low offer potential upside

I’ve have just made a quick soybeans analysis at tradingview.com (awesome trade discussion platform by the way):

More on this link: https://www.tradingview.com/v/ATRrnXOH