Farming, Politics, Soybeans

Helicoverpa Caterpillar – An Ongoing Fight

Three months ago, just before planting, we were scared on how the now famous Helicoverpa caterpillar would behave in our crops…

This motherf****r goes right in the pods

…scared because we knew that the pesticides currently allowed in Brazil do not control helicoverpa effectively. According to research and previous farm experiences in Bahia, they are only efficient until helicoverpa reaches about 0,5 inch. After that, they look more like vitamins to the caterpillars. Half an inch is a risky threshold and there wasn’t a safeguard, a last minute weapon, so we urged to the approval of emamectin benzoatean effective inseticide available in more than 77 countries, including Australia, Argentina, USA, and Europe, but still under the stuck-in-the-mud brazilian government studies, who apparently judges itself much better than its international counterparts.

Meanwhile, and knowing that this approval could take months to come(or never come), Mato Grosso’s institutions and companies acted quickly to intruct farmers on how to monitore, recognize, and control this plague.  Constant monitoring has been the order since then and fortunately it has worked. We are now in the middle of 2013/14 soybeans season in Brazil. Early fields will start to be harvested next week and by now everything is under control in most places. Costs are higher but yields are not being affected.

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Soybeans, Trading Ideas

Soybeans last breath

Today USDA report is expected to decrease US ending stocks to a even more critical level. Part of it is already on the price, part is not, and recent price action, especially yesterday’s, seems to reinforce that there is still some upside ahead. If this prospect if confirmed, a good entry point may become apparent so it is worth watching today market reaction to the report.

…this adds to technicals, seasonals and fundamental drivers displayed on the chart below (click on it for further info) and commented here almost a month ago.

…AND

Another pro aspect are seasonal averages that show us a traditional rally on Decembers. Take a look.
Soybeans seasonals

Important also to note that a rally now has a good chance to be a last and quick breath unless something bad happens to South America 13/14 beans crop.
Play accordingly.

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Corn, Markets, Trading Ideas

Meal/Corn ratio near a record high

Peter Brandt has called my attention to this.
It might become a good trade opportunity in corn.

I still think we need more bullish signals to go long, but who am I to argue.
See for yourself…

2013.12.09 - corn meal ratio

“…We are at or near the top.

1. Meal supply is very tight. Meal spreads have been inverted for some time, with the nearby expiring December contract presently trading at a $25 premium to the March contract. As a general rule, it is never wise to be short a market that is inverted.

2. The nearby continuation chart of Corn displays a small H&S bottom (see below) — the individual contract charts do now show this pattern. A continuation chart tends to better reflect the cash market.”

12.3_ZC057

Respectfully copied from Peter Brandt:
http://peterlbrandt.com/believe-corn-prices-near-bottom/
https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt
http://www.amazon.com/Diary-Professional-Commodity-Trader-Lessons/

and DTN guys have also called and posted a nice chart of it, here.
http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/

What say ya ?

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